> The median age of advanced economies is somewhere between 40 and 50. The median age of most sub-Saharan Africa countries is 25 but more typically below 20.
> According to the United Nations, the fertility rate in West and Central Africa is 4.8 and Eastern and Southern Africa 4.1. Niger has by far the highest fertility of 6.6 and Cape Verde the lowest rate with 1.9. In Asia-Pacific and Latin America, it is 1.9 and 1.8, respectively.
> By comparison, the least developed countries have a fertility rate of 3.8, less developed countries 2.4 and developed countries 1.5.
> Of the top 40 countries with the highest fertility rate in the world, 36 are located in sub-Saharn Africa. (The other four are three Pacific Island countries and Afghanistan.)
The demographic trends in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population of working (labor force) will expand significantly, stands in sharp contrast with those in advanced and emering economies. The working-age population has already peaked in countries such as China and Japan. In many Western European countries, the working-age population is stagnating, broadly speaking, and only net immigration helps prevent decline. In Eastern Europe and East Asia, working-age population are shrinking and will continue to shrink. In sub-Saharan Africa, working-age population will expand rapidly over the next few decades if current demograhic projections are correct. Historically, demographic projections have tended to underestimate the rapid decline in fertility, particularly in lower and upper middle income countries. It is therefore quite possible that fertility will also decline more rapidly in sub-Saharan than currently anticipate, particularly in countries experiencing rapid economic development (lessens economic needs to have a large number of children), improving education levels (makes women postpone childbirth and have fewer children) and where the population has broad-based access to the internet (information about “alternative” lifestyles). Should fertility decline faster, translating into improving dependency ratios, the economic outlook would improve further. To the extent that demographic factors support or represent a drag on economic growth, the region is well positioned.
> In Africa, the population is expected to grow by 1.7% per year between 2025 and 2050. In Asia, Europe and the Americas, population change will be minimal, ranging from -0.3% per year in Europe to 0.2% in Asia, including India. Africa's population will make up 23% of the world's population by 2050, up from 16% in 2023.
> Sub-Saharan Africa's dependency ratio is very high, but has begun to decline very slowly. Dependency ratios have long bottomed out in most demographically advanced economies, and they will do so in most emerging economies 2030-40. By comparison, sub-Saharan African dependency ratio are projected to bottom out in 2070-80, again if current projections are correct.
Demographic growth and a rapidly expanding population of working age bodes well for the region’s economic growth potential, but for this potential to be fully realized countries need to maintain political stability and pursue sound economic policies conducive to the exploitation of the so-called democratic dividend. Sub-Saharan Africanica has significant potential in terms of a young and growing workforce. It will also benefit from declining dependency ratio because this, all other things equal, allows countries to save more due to the relatively lower share of economically inactive dependents. Unlike in East and South-East, sub-Saharan Africa will find it more difficul to pursue an export-oriented, manufacturing-foscused development strategy, supported by foreign investment, due to constraints in terms of infrastructur as well as political and economic stability. Moreover, emerging technologies, such as robotics and 3D printing, may also reduce the demand for low-cost labor. But none of this mean that an economic development strategy aimed at imporvind infrastructure, raising education levels and leveraging an economy’s compara, as countries like Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania have demostrated.
> Four African countries are among the 15 fastest-growing economies in the world, namely Ethiopia, the Maldives, Rwanda and Tanzania, with all four countries registering real GDP growth of more than 6% per year. Almost half of the top 20 countries were located in sub-Saharan Africa.
> While Saharan Africa represents a large share among the world’s fastest growing economies, it also ranked prominently among the ten worst-performing economies over the past decade. Sudan, the Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, Equatoria Guinea registered negative real economic growth, which in the contet of demograhpic grwoth means signifcantly shrinking per capita income. These countries’ poor performance was mostly due to political instability and civil strife, or a sharp collapse of the natural resource sector.
· Of the 50 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 44 have a per capita income of less than $10,000 on a purchasing-power parity basis, The Seychelles ($30,000) and Mauritius ($22,000) are the richest (sub-Saharan) African countries. By comparison, all North African countries have per capita incomes exceeding $10,000.
Demographic change is slow and is only indirectly linked to phenomena such as econonomic growth or domestic and international political instability. Economically, a favorably demographic momentum enhanced a country’s economic potential. But there are many other factors that affect economic outcomes, such as sensible economic policy, increasing education, political instability and so on. Similarly, rapid population growth need to lead to political instability. Factors such as the degree of government control, socio-economic or socio-ethnic cleavages and so on affect the degree of politcal stability. Nonetheless, rapid population growth and particularly a rapid increase in the youn adult population will create both econmic and political challenges. The economy needs to provide jobs for a rapidly expanding labor force. Large amounts of infrastructure investments are needed to so. Sub-Saharan countries that manage to implement far-sighted policies will do well in the coming years. Countries already inflicted by signifciant domestic and civil strife will find it difficul to exploit the favorable demographics characterizing the region.
> Average population growth rate in African countries ranges from 2-3% per year. A growth rate of 3% leads a doubling of the population every 25 years.
> According to current trends and projections, Nigeria (360m), Ethiopia (225m), the Democratic Republic of Congo (200m) and Tanzania (130m) will all have populations exceeding. Populations in these four countries alone will nearl double between today and 2050 .
> According to current trends and projections, Nigeria (360m), Ethiopia (225m), the Democratic Republic of Congo (200m) and Tanzania (130m) will all have populations exceeding. Populations in these four countries alone will nearl double between today and 2050 .