After the end of the Cold War and the economic collapse of the late 1980s and early 1990s, demographic trends in eastern Europe took a decisive turn for the worse. Several interesting observations can be made in this respect. First, the countries in the region with the highest per-capita income (Czech Republic, Slovakia) seem to have experienced more favourable demographic developments. Second, the eastern European countries closer to western Europe seem to have fared better in demographic terms than their peers further east. Third, demographic projections suggest that 2010-30 will be more or less a continuation of the trends observed in 1990-2010.
Population decline will decelerate, but the overall dynamics will remain adverse. Only two out of twelve countries will experience population growth during this period. The relationship between demographic trends, per-capita income and economic growth is complex. Lower per-capita income should lead to higher growth, but it also has a negative impact on labour supply. Clearly, eastern Europe will have to rely on capital accumulation and productivity growth rather than labour force growth to generate economic growth.
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| Source: UN |