> Foreign trade and macroeconomic policies under a Harris administration would largely provide for continuity with the Biden administration, while policies under another Trump administration would have the potential to be highly disruptive
> Regardless of who becomes the next president, US national-security-focused trade and investment policies will continue to be tightened in the context of US-Chinese strategic competition
> Trump trade policies could prove hugely destabilizing to international trade, severely strain US-EU trade relations, and lead to a full-blown trade war with China
> Fiscal policy will remain loose under both a Harris and a Trump administration, but the latter would also seek to pressure the Federal Reserve to pursue loose monetary and weak dollar policies
> The EU should ready its new geoeconomic instruments to deter US discriminatory measures, while signaling openness to negotiations about how best to defuse transatlantic economic conflict
