Brazil’s economic growth has outperformed expectations post-COVID-19, but this improved economic performance is unlikely to be sustained over the medium term due to continued low savings and investment After years of economic underperformance following the car wash scandal, economic growth has outperformed market economists’ expectations. Brazil’s economic fundamentals are relatively sound in terms of its international financial position, commitment to a floating exchange rate regime and the government’s net foreign currency creditor position, all of which mitigate the risks of a balance-of-payments or sovereign external debt crisis. However, domestic government debt is high and fiscal deficits are high, raising concerns about the medium- and long-term outlook for debt sustainability, and hence economic growth.
> According to the IMF, real GDP grew by 3% annually in 2022 and 2023, and it is expected to expand another 3% in 2024, supported by strong domestic consumption, increased agricultural and hydrocarbon output and a less than anti-cyclical fiscal policy. Real GDP growth averaged 0.5% a year over the past decade. According to the World Bank, real GDP per capita growth averaged a negative 1.6% annually.
> The Brazilian public sector is net foreign-currency creditor. Less than 5% of Brazilian public debt is foreign-currency-linked. Brazil’s international financing requirements are low and the central bank sits on $350 billion of foreign-currency reserves, while the current account deficit is more than fully financed by net foreign direct investment flows.
> Compared to the other two large Latin American economies, Argentina and Mexico, Brazil compares favorably in terms of long-term economic growth. In the past thirty years, both Argentina and Mexico registered real GDP growth of 2%, compared to Brazil 2.4%. Over the past decade, Brazil grew 0.5% annually, compared to Mexico’s 1.5%, while Argentinian real GDP did not grow at all.
While Brazil’s international financial position is very manageable, a modest medium-term growth outlook and adverse fiscal dynamics represent will sooner or later force the government to pursue a much more restrictive fiscal policy. While such an adjustment is necessary to ensure medium- to long-term debt sustainability, if would also, if implemented forcefully, help free up resources to be invested in the economy to raise medium-term growth. But this is unlikely to happen on a meaningful scale, as the Lula government is struggling to implement more decisive short- and medium-term fiscal adjustment, particularly in view of the 2026 presidential elections. The government has reformed the fiscal framework, but is struggling to take more decisive actions aimed at a fiscal adjustment in the short term to help stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. The government has also failed to address longer-term fiscal concerns related to high levels of education, health and pension spending, which will sooner or later prove unsustainable. Significant reform remains unlikely in the next two years.
> In 2023, congress approved a constitutional amendment replacing the zero cap on growth in real federal spending, which had been in force since 2016, with a corridor for real spending growth tied to both revenues and the difference between projected and targeted primary fiscal balances. The amendment re-established floors for mandatory education and health as well as investment spending. While the reform committed the government to improving the primary balance from -0.5% of GDP in 2023 to 1% of GDP by 2026, these are indicative targets only and can be changed with a simple majority vote in congress. Mandatory spending increases mean that the government is constantly struggling to mobilize greater revenues, while it limits the amount of money that can be spent on investment.
> Absent reform, public pension spending is projected to increase from 12% of GDP in 2016t to 16% in 2025 to 26% in 2050. This is not sustainable. Pension reform in 1998, 2003 and 2012 were insufficient to significantly impact the path of future spending. Adjusted for age, Brazil has the largest pension expenditure in the world, according to the IMF.
> The IMF projects gross government debt to increase from 85% of GDP in 2023 to 95% of GDP by 2027, which represents a substantial increase. The IMF also forecasts the structural primary balance to improve by 0.5 percentage points of GDP annually, which will likely prove way too optimistic. It also forecast real economic growth of 2.4% annually, which is way above the ten- and twenty year average of 0.5% and 2.3%.
Structural economic reform necessary to accelerate medium- to long-term economic growth is always difficult, particularly so in Brazil. Brazilian presidents typically face an unwieldly congress in several ways. First, the president’s own party generally controls an often miniscule share of seats in the chamber and the senate, forcing the formation of often disparate “presidential coalitions”. Second, the number of congressional political parties and hence congressional fragmentation is high, which further weakens the cohesion of presidential coalitions. Third, party discipline in Brazil is very low, largely due to an electoral regime that weaken party-political control of candidates and favor personalistic policies. More recently, changes to the way budget policy is implemented further has further weakened the president’s ability to win congressional support for a cohesive, long-term economic reform agenda. Finally, many important economic reforms require amendments to the constitution and this require super-majorities to pass them. This is not impossible, but does make it more difficult to pass reform legislation than in other countries. If Brazil fails to implement major spending reform, particularly pension and social spending, it will sooner or later fail to comply with its new fiscal framework and government debt will inevitably become unsustainable. It also means that the government will fail to mobilize the fiscal space required to increase investment and support medium- to -long-term economic growth.
> Consisting of 82 members, the Senate has 11 different political parties and groups. The high degree of fragmentation tends to limit the size of presidential coalitions. The government coalition consists of 42 senators. Consisting of 513 member, the chamber of deputies has 16 different parties and political groups. The government coalition consists of 225 deputies, falling short of an absolute majority, hence requiring wide-ranging compromise with independents or the opposition to pass legislation.
> Members of the chamber of deputies are elected on the basis of open list proportional representation, which gives voters extensive influence over who they elect and weakens party political control over candidates, leading to personalistic and clientelist politics. The centrao, the broadly centrist group of members of congress that lack ideological conviction or cohesion and engage in clientelist politics, is a reflection of the open list proportional representation. Senators are elected on the basis of a plurality regime, but due to weak national political parties and the senatorial candidates’ need to maintain close ties with and rely on state governments and governors (and their political machines) to be elected, they are similarly independent from the parties they represent.
> The Brazilian constitution established extensive social and economic rights, which require constitutional majorities to be amended. This is possible, particularly as far as it concerns minor issues, but it is generally politically challenging due to 4/5 super-majorities in both chambers.
Despite a surprisingly strong growth performance, the medium-term outlook remains challenging, not least because sooner or later Brazil will need to overhaul public finances. Over the medium term, the government will need to implement a more forceful fiscal adjustment to prevent a further increase in government debt, not least given the large social and pension obligations. A future government will implement reform only gradually in terms of the politics and economics. Politically, radical reform is politically very unpopular as it affected “acquired rights”, which often are grandfathered in. Economically and financially, the effects of reform are limited in the sense that they typically seek to prevent a further rise of pension spending rather than a decline in a context where spending is set to increase due demographic dynamics. This will also mean that Brazil will continue to be characterized by a low, perhaps even falling savings rate, which will constrain domestic investment, particularly in public infrastructure, and future economic growth. Other structural reform, such as greater trade integration, may support higher medium-term growth, but progress will be slow, while the international trade environment is set to worsen in the next few years in the context of the U.S. presidential elections. With major structural reform unlikely before the 2026 elections, Brazil’s economic performance is likely peaking and will deteriorate as 2026 approaches and beyond.
> According to IBGE, Brazil’s population currently at 216 million is projected to peak at 220 million in 2041 in the context of a rapidly falling fertility rate (falling from 2.3 in 2000 to 1.6 in 2023, and projected to reach 1.4 by 2040). The old-age dependence ratio increased from 10 in 2010 to 15 in 2023 and is projected to 36% by 2050. Brazil’s working-age population is estimated to have peaked in 2021 as share of the total population.
> Trade integration, defined as exports and imports of goods and services, Brazil ranks 184 out of 195 countries. Agricultural product and fuels and mining account for 75% of total exports, only 25% manufacturing. China accounts for 26% of exports, followed by 15% for the EU and 11% for the U.S. China accounts for 23% of all imports, followed by the U.S. with 19% and the EU with 16%.
> Federal capital expenditure typically amounts to less than 1% of GDP and the public sector is net dis-saver, meaning most public sector net borrowing finances non-investment expenditure. Public sector dissaving is the major cause of a low domestic savings ratio of less than 15% of GDP, and hence low investment.